Our Thinking

Shelter is an essential part of well-being, and owner-occupied residential housing provides shelter for many. A review of trends in housing can provide perspective for economic activity and investing ahead.

Expectations for future market outcomes often are a blend of historical experience and more recent developments. A review of changing expectations for all assets can provide perspective for achieving investor goals ahead.

2022 was a challenging year for most markets, especially stock and bond markets. A review of diversification outcomes over time can provide perspective for investing in markets ahead.

In the current efforts to lower inflation, policymakers have shied from including “recession” in their commentaries and prognostications. Instead, more frequently, the phrase “demand destruction” has been used.

Even though sitting presidents are not on the ballot, mid-term elections generally are a referendum on their policies and accomplishments in the past two years.

Inflation has accelerated rapidly and its forward trend is uncertain.

Forecasting future economic activity always is shrouded in fog. A review of recent trends and current forecasts can provide perspective for investing into the fog ahead.

Some key relationships with official recessions can provide perspective for investing ahead.

Some relationships between nominal and real returns for important asset classes can provide perspective for investing ahead and what’s left for investors after inflation.