Forecasting future economic activity always is shrouded in fog. At this particular time, the fog seems thicker than usual. The contributing factors weighing on forecasts are relatively clear – ongoing supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, virus-induced China slowdown, energy price pressure, rising interest rates. Slower growth, higher inflation and rising interest rates each have implications for financial market outcomes. For stock markets, levels of earnings and price multiples are impacted. For bond markets, interest rate risk and credit risk are affected. A review of recent trends and current forecasts can provide perspective for investing into the fog ahead.
Into the Fog
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